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Prediction for CME (2022-10-01T13:09:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-10-01T13:09Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/21824/-1
CME Note: Visible in the W in STEREO A COR2, partial halo W in SOHO LASCO C3. Overtakes previous narrow CME in coronagraph imagery. May be associated with large eruption from AR 13113 (N16W21), visible in SDO AIA 171/193/304 beginning 2022-10-01T12:04Z. From Tarik Salman, LASSOS team: We can have a potential CME arrival at 2022-10-04T07:05Z. As you can see, we do have a smooth-like rotation in the Z-component of magnetic field. Also, in the same period, the ion density and temperature seem to decrease from higher levels. A potential end of this CME (flux rope) could be 2022-10-05T02:46Z. After this, you can see the components are too fluctuating (or noisy).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-10-04T07:05Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-10-04T00:20Z
Prediction Method: SPM2
Prediction Method Note:

SPM2 Input Parameters:
Date-time:   2022-10-01 13:09:00
Source Longtitude: 28
Source Latitude: 5
Initial Shock Speed:  671 km/s
Background Solar Wind Speed:  430 km/s
Duration Time: 1.5 hrs

Output results: The shock will reach the Earth at 2022-10-04 00:19:49

Lead Time: 37.97 hour(s)
Difference: 6.75 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) on 2022-10-02T17:07Z

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